潜水简报:
- Egg production could struggle to meet seasonal demand in the face of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak ahead of Easter,according to an analysis by CoBank. The avian influenza has spread to 24 states and affected nearly 18 million commercial table egg layer hens, according to theUSDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.
- 基于目前的库存，COBANK报告称“显然显而易见的是，由于HPAI爆发，蛋换蛋换入复活节肯定会受到阻碍。它引用了USDA中西部每日报价的纸浆，建议价格在假期前1美元或以上的价格，甚至在大流行开始期间的2020年3月20日的简要价格高。
- HPAI已经复杂化了各种优化供应的努力，因为它还对消费者需求从大流行的转变以及对无笼生产的过渡的反应。但是一些鸡蛋制作人正在发现中断的增长机会。
潜入洞察力：
虽然该行业通常试图将表蛋白层群体符合消费者需求 - 在复活节前提前上升，然后在夏季萎缩 - 科克分析发现自2019年以来一直无法保持目标增长。
The U.S. flock has shrunken from a record of2019年4月超过3.4亿到3.22亿随着行业的过渡California's Prop 12, a state law requiring all eggs sold in the state to come from cage-free hens beginning in 2022, according to CoBank. Beyond California's law,major restaurant chains such as McDonald's通过拥抱目标来使用无笼蛋来推动班次。2020年底，在无笼的环境中举起28％的母鸡，according to United Egg Producers, up from only 4% in 2010.
同时，随着大流行快速转向家庭的需求，该行业的供应链迅速跌跌撞撞，导致价格上涨和短缺，侵蚀需求。HPAI爆发只是将行业的供应问题复杂化。
然而，一些鸡蛋制造商在这些过渡时期发现了机会。在基于密西西比州的Cal-Maine食品，特色蛋的销售 - 包括无笼和有机选择 - 达到18290万美元in its fiscal third quarter 2022, making up more than 39% of its total shell egg revenue. Specialty eggs as a percentage of dozens sold rose to 33.1% in the third quarter, up about 6 points from prior year.
"Specialty egg sales remain an integral part of our growth strategy," Cal-Maine CEO Dolph Baker said in a statement. "Consumer preference for specialty eggs, including cage-free eggs, continues to expand with more consumers willing to pay premium prices for these products." Indeed, demand has risen even as the net average selling price for specialty eggs in the third quarter rose 1.5% to $1.923 per dozen compared to the same period a year ago.
In its analysis, CoBank注意到消费者对当前环境中鸡蛋的更高成本承担更高的成本。
“供应涌现y spiraling, and stress on conversion to more expensive cage-free-type eggs, consumers appear likely to bear at least a portion of the brunt of higher prices for eggs tendered in 2022, at a time when they are actively seeking low-priced protein items as they grapple with overall inflation," the analysis states.
The same week that Cal-Maine reported its third-quarter earnings, the company announced it would invest $82 million to扩展其无笼的生产能力在犹他州和肯塔基州的设施。
同时，虽然poultry processors such as Tyson and Hormelhave reported incidences of HPAI, Cal-Maine noted that it had not yet recorded any positive tests at its owned or contracted production facilities.
