潜水简介:
- 2018年最糟糕的一年r增长domesticmilk production since 2013, according to a new report from Rabobank。Prospectsdon’t look much better for 2019 as the industry continues to grapple with overproduction, tariffs and volatile market dynamics,乳业记者写道。
- Despite increases in consumer spending, retail dairy sales have mostly declined.艰辛的部分原因是施加了戏剧性的过度供应，该供应迫使价格降低，并使乳制品制造商放弃了。
- Nevertheless, U.S. milk solids exports were up 18% across the board. Trade disputes have provoked shifts in the market。作为博览会rts to China saw a 22% decline, U.S. milk flooded markets in the Philippines and Indonesia, where exporTS在第三季度飙升了47％。
潜水见解：
这是一个糟糕的few years for dairy in America. Prices havebeen falling自2014年以来一直和奶牛场左右关闭。The number of dairy cows decreasedby 30,000随着生产商努力跟上继续更少需求更少的市场。奶牛屠宰率增加sed 11% over 2017 as of October.All the while, breeders have increased the per cow milk yield，既有促进生产的增加和减少牛群的规模。
Faced with more fluid milk than they can sell fresh, dairy farmers have turned to cheesemakers. Once transformed into cheddar, Swiss or marbled jack, fluid milk has a much longer shelf life. It’s a better alternative than dumping the excess milk. But now U.S. cheese producers are sitting on数十亿磅的盈余产品, driving down prices across the board.
But underlying the dairy crisis is a growing U.S. economy. While food service and consumer sales are up 7% and 6% respectively, retail dairy sales are tanking. Although consumers are spending on food and drinks, they aren't spending on milk. Processed cheese, yogurt and fluid milk sales are all down. That could be partiallyattributed to the growiNG受欢迎程度of alternative dairy products, like坚果和oatmilks. Additionally, m伊尔克prices have dropped从2014年起40％，去年在威斯康星州关闭了600多个奶牛场。报告称，在此期间，只有天然奶酪的销售才增长。
Butit’s not just a domestic problem. U.S. exports were actually up last year, despite the uncertainty of bothBrexit和美中贸易战。尽管中国出口量下降了22％，但美国生产商在其他地方派出了更多的乳制品。墨西哥奶酪的销售逐年下降，但牛奶出口的总体增长。但是，尽管有一些收益，但有些人预测，美国牛奶产品在中国的市场下降可能会呈现到2023年亏损122亿美元。
鉴于中国和墨西哥关税的持续压力，干乳和奶酪等产品的价格可能会保持低。乳制品行业将于2019年开始，价格比以往任何时候都低。该报告预测，一年中的头六个月将增长0.75％，再加上每头母牛产量的增长和平均牛群规模的持续减少。
With retail sales down considerably and unlikely to pick back up, exports will remain critical for the U.S. dairy industry in 2019. Production is down in the EuRopean Union和Australia也是天气条件对饲料造成的破坏。Much of northwestern Europe is struggling with a drought likely to slow production rates into 2019.这可能为美国生产者提供机会send more milkproducts abroad，至少在短期内。
但是最大的未知仍然是贸易机智h China and regionally in the U.S. If the international market continues to be this volatile and milk prices drop even lower, the industry will continue to struggle this year.
