上个月，路透社报告的油价已经跌至几乎是最低的六年。反过来，四年来，他们也在他们美味最低？食品价格。
The oil industry and current global food system appear to be linked, particularly by price, due to food production being so dependent on fuel and transportation. Therefore, lower oil prices put deflationary pressure on food prices and vice versa, and, according to OilPrice.com, “The prices of both food and fuel have risen and fallen more or lessin tandem最近几年。”
Leo Abruzzese, the Economist Intelligence Unit’s (EIU) global forecasting director, said in a statement, "The 60 percent decline in the price of crude oil since July also is good news for food security. During the last 25 years, food and energy prices have tracked each other closely, so cheaper crude oil usually means more affordable food."
全球食品价格fell 2.8%根据新的全球粮食安全指数，2014年9月至11月之间。eiu报道，油价下跌，以及纪录收获，促成了粮食价格下跌lowest他们已经在四年了。
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported所有商品的价格下降除了谷物。Rabobank, an agriculturally focused global financial services company, predicts that the price declines of agri commodities will make a significant contribution to total food costs and that this will ultimately have an effect on lower costs for food production, which will lead to lower retail food prices.
农民如何受益
AgWeb reports that in Arkansas, the average farmer spent about 16% of his total 2014 operating budget on diesel fuel and other energy sources. This equates to about$61,000每1000英亩。
自2014年12月以来，retail diesel fuel priceswent from $3.61 to $2.93 per gallon, which provides an array of benefits to farmers.
从种植，喂食和收获加工，包装和分配，油状燃料形式的油就达到了everything。石油甚至是建筑，修理和交付从农业机械，盒子和加工设施到基础设施的重要组成部分，如存储，船舶，卡车和道路等基础架构。
随着油价下跌的方式，农民的运营成本也可能会显着下降。
The trickle-down effect
食品价格下跌可能不会立即发生，因为商品的涓滴效应必须在消费水平上降低价格。便宜的石油节省可以向供应链，从农民到处理器，然后到零售商，最后，随着零售商之间的竞争推动价格向消费者推动价格。
According to Annemarie Kuhns, a USDA agricultural economist, transportation prices, driven down by lower oil costs, affect food prices but do so with alagging effect这可能是一到10个月。她在一个NJ.com上说，消费者将看到速度下降的食品价格速度快于更多加工的物品，如面包，以及运输成本是“贡献因素，而不是最大的因素”。
“食品零售商是不情愿的为了使价格明显上下，除非他们看到这将是可持续的，“奥尔福斯大学奥尔照片大学，食品，农业和资源经济学部教授讲述剑桥时报。
Could lower food prices translate to higher food consumption?
Moody’s预测消费者将“在酌情食品上花费额外的现金。”但根据rabobank的预测，消费者将享受较低的食品价格，但是not enough强烈影响消费，即由于“食物和饮料的价格相对较低，收入弹性。”
Rabobank predicts "the biggest volume increase“从高档食品和饮料消费中，包括食品服务，葡萄酒和烈酒，牛肉和猪肉，异国情调的水果和果汁。当食物弥补的那样，这种情况尤其如此50-70％of the average household income of the world’s poorest 2 billion people. That’s compared to less than 10% for a typical American household income. According to EIU data, close to 75% of the countries it surveyed benefited from the drop in oil prices (and record harvests), which has helped make food更实惠对于全球消费者来说，报道路透社。
在频谱的另一端，一些农村地区do not participatein the global food trade and thus aren't plugged into oil prices for maintaining their crops, reports Reuters. Also, the food price drops may actuallyhurt subsistence farmersas importers may not be willing to pay as much for the farmers' crops.
虽然油价下跌和th的当前状态e resulting lower food prices can be beneficial for consumers, the opposite can hold true as well. If and when oil prices increase, if not soar, food prices could go up right along with them.
