要问的三个问题
- What market share can alternative protein reach in the US by 2040, and what are the primary drivers?
- What are potential land-use implications in the US?
- 蛋白质破坏和土地利用变化对农业利益相关者意味着什么？
Protein is being reimagined globally, and its availability from alternative sources may have profound and disruptive impacts on the agri-food system and land use. A protein system transformation also has the potential to unlock opportunities for food and agricultural stakeholders to help address some of the world’s most pressing challenges, including decarbonization, restoring ecosystems, producing circular and bio-based materials, and producing enough healthy food for a growing population.
随着利益相关者更加重视地球，消费者需求和整个生态系统的更大连通性，食品系统继续被重新构想。随着重新配置的发展，我们看到组织以新的方式进行创新，并提供更大的透明度和可持续性。在蛋白质系统中尤其如此，在蛋白质系统中，替代蛋白质采用和投资速度正在增加。
EY-Parthenon团队在替代蛋白质中的最新研究和场景建模寻求以下问题的答案：
- What market share can alternative protein reach in the US by 2040, and what are the primary drivers?
- 结合其他农业消费模式的转变，例如采用电动汽车对玉米乙醇需求的影响，替代蛋白质采用如何改变美国核心商品产品的需求模式？
- What are the potential land-use implications of these demand shifts?
- 这些变化对农业食品利益相关者意味着什么？
基于植物的，基于发酵的蛋白质技术的进步都在加速。尽管尚未实现与动物蛋白的感觉和成本均衡，但在替代蛋白质生产中使用的输入，成分和过程中，全球发生了数百种创新。每项创新都使该类别更接近感官和与动物蛋白的成本均衡，并推动消费和消费者参与度的增加。
预测的替代蛋白质破坏，2020-40
Alternative dairy, which our analysis shows could be upwards of 60% market share by 2040, is a strong analog for alternative meat. The alternative meat forecast of 9% by 2030 compares favorably with the experience of alternative milk, which has penetrated American households and now accounts for 15% of all dollar sales of retail milk.¹ The rest of the alternative dairy category, including cheese, is advancing technologically and continues to attract increasing levels of investment. If social, environmental and regulatory drivers (e.g., water or carbon taxes) are factored into conventional protein production, market shares for alternative meat and dairy could surpass our base forecast considerably.
植物在美国和fermentation-based肉may reach sensory and cost parity by 2024. “Fermentation-based” here refers to biomass fermentation. However, the budding “precision fermentation” industry is creating functional and nutritional ingredients that will be incorporated into all categories of alternative protein products. Cultivated meat, on the other hand, can potentially reach cost and sensory parity by the end of the decade. As the underlying cultivated protein technologies advance, we expect increasing production and consumer adoption of this source of protein and anticipate that by 2040 they could potentially surpass plant-based proteins in popularity. It is important to note that cultivated fats may reach parity sooner and be incorporated into plant-based products in the coming years. To drive our analysis, we considered production costs and advancements in sensory technology while incorporating potential tailwinds and disruptors.
基于植物的食品协会发布的数据显示，植物性牛奶已经被美国超过39％的家庭购买。进食消费者对肉的需求。该公司的分析表明，基于植物的蛋白质将在仅三到四年内占市场的10％。
宾夕法尼亚大学的研究表明，采用新规范的人中有25％可以触发和催化广泛的行为改变。⁹采用25％甚至更少的替代蛋白质会对食品系统产生重大影响。这些影响不仅限于新的和不断增长的市场带来的机会。当前市场市场的潜在流离失所也有影响。这是一个基于动物生产和加工的大量基础设施投资的产业，我们的大部分农业系统已经发展为种植动物的饲料谷物。替代蛋白质的消耗量增加有可能在整个系统上产生重大压力和潜在破坏。
