World War III is unimaginable for many, but some experts believe that not only is this degree of global conflict imminent, but it may be instigated not by military tensions, oil and gas, or nuclear threats, but instead by, of all things, food.
就目前而言，全球各地正在持久粮食危机，联合国的粮食与农业组织（FAO）估计8.4亿人in the world are undernourished, including theone in four childrenunder the age of 5 who is stunted because of malnutrition.
联合国粮农组织亚洲太平洋助理主任Hiroyuki Konuma told路透社社会和政治动荡，内战和恐怖主义都可能是粮食危机的结果，“整个世界安全可能会受到影响”。除非世界增加其输出of food production 60% by mid-century. This includes maintaining astable growth rateat about 1% to have an even theoretical opportunity to circumvent severe shortages. These needs are due to the growing global population, which is expected to reach到2050年90亿虽然对食物的需求将迅速增加。
Where the problems lie
Exacerbating this issue is the fact that the world is spending less on agricultural research, to the dismay of scientists who believe global food production may not sustain the increased demand. According toAmerican Boondoggle, “The pace of investment growth has slowed from 3.63 percent per year (after inflation) during 1950–69, to 1.79 percent during 1970–89, to 0.94 percent during 1990– 2009.” Decreased growth in agricultural research and development spending has slowed across the world as a whole, but it is even slower in high-income countries.
Water scarcity is another problem, including in major food-producing nations like China, as well as climate change.极端天气事件在澳大利亚，加拿大，中国，俄罗斯和美国等国家遭受毁灭的农作物，即由于洪水和干旱而受到破坏。根据政府间气候变化的一个政府间小组，最近警告说，气候变化可能会导致“本世纪的每个十年下降2％”RT。
Rising food costs also contribute to poor food security across the world as prices remain high and volatile. Higher food costs inhibit lower socioeconomic people’s access to food, which contributes to the FAO’s disturbing figure of global malnutrition. In addition to an inability for people to feed themselves, poverty can also reduce food production, such as some African farmers being unable to afford irrigation and fertilizers to provide their regions with food.
粮食生产减少的另一个问题是，许多农民将大豆，玉米和糖等农作物变成生物燃料的来源，而不是可食用的消费量，这意味着这些食物被带走了人们的食物。
这些短缺会导致全球重大的冲突吗？
研究表明，粮食危机可能开始早在2030年，从现在开始只有15年的时间，特别是在东亚和撒哈拉以南非洲等地区。这两个地区在国内粮食生产方面都有重大问题。
一些专家认为，为了为其人口获得足够的粮食资源，各国可能会因越来越稀缺的粮食供应而战。这可能部分是由于交战方阻止援助和商业食品交付给支持其敌人的地区，尽管这种做法破坏了国际人道主义法。
冲突也导致人口缺乏粮食供应，因为人们流离失所和被迫从家里，工作和收入中被迫，因此无法购买食物来养活自己。流离失所的农民也无法生产正常的农作物，在某些国家的粮食短缺方面做出了更多的作用。
粮食不安全是对世界和平的主要威胁，可能会煽动世界各国之间的暴力冲突。因此，联合国和其他政府机构拼命试图在无法控制的问题之前找到解决问题的方法。
关于如何解决问题的辩论
According toRT, “To combat the problem, the U.N. body has outlined两个主要选项: increasing arable land areas as well as productivity rates. A lack of available arable land and more sluggish growth rates in staple crops have complicated efforts to bolster these two pillars of food security.” Increased production is a cornerstone of solving food crises, but this cannot be done without also increasing the land on which farmers can grow their crops.
威廉和玛丽学院的另一位分析师斯科特·伊克斯（Scott Ickes），公共卫生和营养教授告诉财富, “A lot of food rots because of bad storage facilities in poor countries, and bad infrastructure in those areas prevents delivery of food to a lot of the poor.” Thus, if countries can figure out how to better distribute and store food, this could be a viable way out of a global food shortage.
一个常见的方式来解决this problem touted by some food companies, like Monsanto, is to create genetically modified foods en masse. However, GMO food production has endured extensive criticism and backlash in many countries as being an unhealthy and unnatural choice of food.
在更好的生产，土地可用性，存储和基础设施之间，所有这些方法都可以帮助解决潜在的粮食危机问题，这可能不可避免地导致全球动荡增加。但是，另一个关键选择是粮食援助，美国有望继续帮助有需要的国家，然后这一问题失控，冲突即将到来。
