UPDATE: April 27, 2022:该国首席经济部长周三表示，印度尼西亚将在其出口禁令中包括原油和精致的棕榈油。它最初说，它只会停止运输精制，漂白和除臭的棕榈油蛋白。
In an email,Paul Hughes,chief agricultural economist and director of research withS&P Global Commodities Insights, Agribusiness, told Food Dive that "it is our belief the complete ceasing of exports cannot last long.
"Indonesia consumes only about 1/3 of [its] production, so storage will fill up quickly," he noted. "Also, the exportation of palm oil is too important for the industry and Indonesia’s overall economy. However, even a brief stoppage will be challenging for the world market to handle under the current circumstances."
Palm oil futures on the Malaysia exchange jumped 9.8% on the news,Reuters reported, and U.S. soybean oil futures rose 4% to hit a record high.
潜水简介:
- 在世界上最大的食品商品生产国印度尼西亚宣布了4月28日的出口禁令的计划之后的周末，可食用油的价格在周末鞭打了。尽管政府最初是政府的said Fridayit would ban all palm oil exports, it has since restricted the ban to bulk and packaged refined, bleached and deodorized (RBD) palm olein, a processed version用作食用油that makes up to 40% of Indonesia's total palm oil exports, sources told Bloomberg.
- Indonesia said the export ban would continue until it was satisfied with domestic availability and affordability of the cooking oil. Upon news of the export ban, prices for soybean oil, a popular substitute, hit a record high on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday, only to reverse course after reports of a narrowed focus on RBD palm olein over the weekend.
- The Indonesia export ban on RBD palm olein comes as the broader edible oil market has been hit by a一系列通货膨胀事件, including poor weather and labor shortages in key crop growing countries, rising global demand和乌克兰的战争。
潜水见解：
RBD棕榈油蛋白的出口禁令加剧了印度尼西亚为解决该国通货膨胀和供应短缺的危机所做的努力。一月份，印度尼西亚issued a short-term mandate要求国内棕榈油生产商为当地买家预留五分之一的货物，并在家中实施了零售价。全球需求的重量转移到了马来西亚等国家，棕榈油的第二大生产国以及大豆油等替代品。
然而，大豆石油的供应受到全球顶级出口商阿根廷干旱的压力。以其自己的保护主义举动，南美国家提高了大豆油的出口税3月，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，短暂暂停出口。
The war in Ukraine has also compromised a key source of sunflower oil. Ukraine and Russia产生80％的成分.
In April, the Food Agriculture Organization of the United Nations reported itsvegetable price index rose3月份，超过23％的人获得了新的记录，受到棕榈，大豆，向日葵和菜籽油价格更高的压力。目前，美国食品制造商的最常用植物油中最常用的植物油的价格比去年同期高41％，在过去两年中，价格上涨了151％，价格高出151％according to an analysis by Gro Intelligence,
几家最大的食品制造商是棕榈油的主要买家。Oreo和Chips Ahoy Cookie和Ritz Crackers的MondelēzInternational仅弥补了全球棕榈油消费量的0.5％根据其网站, and sources most of its supply from Indonesia and Malaysia.
Unilever, whose brands include Magnum ice cream and Hellman's mayonnaise, as well as several health and beauty labels, used 1 million tons of crude palm oil and derivatives in 2016, the most recent data available,Reuters reported. Nestlé, which makes Kit Kat abroad in more than a dozen countries,sourced 453,000 metric tons2020年的棕榈油和棕榈仁油，主要来自马来西亚和印度尼西亚。费雷罗（Ferrero根据其最新的棕榈油供应报告.
拉姆西说，印度尼西亚的出口禁令将进一步使CPGS努力保持粮食价格较低的努力复杂化。巴格达迪，研究公司的消费者分析师GlobalData.
巴格达迪说：“消费者继续对价格保持敏感，因为经济不确定性被证明是对他们决策的关键影响。”全球研究中有60％的消费者声称有60％的消费者对他们的个人理财非常关注。
他说：“制造商将需要专注于价格促进策略，以保持价格降低并与客户保持良好的关系。”
